【国际经贸学院讲座】Family Planning, Fertility Rate, and Quantity-Quality Tradeof
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讲座主题：Family Planning, Fertility Rate, and Quantity-Quality Tradeoff - A New Perspective from the Establishment of Family Planning Leading Group 主 讲 人：陈祎博士 讲座时间：2016年12月6日（周二）13:00 讲座地点：浦东校区五号教学楼404会议室 讲座摘要：To identify the causal effect of the fertility rate in China, in this paper we propose a novel approach - the establishment of the provincial Family Planning Leading Group in the early 1970's. Since 1970, provinces gradually established an institution named Family Planning Leading Group to facilitate the restoration of Family Planning, which was previously interrupted by the outbreak of the Cultural Revolution. An important feature of this policy change is that the process is different across provinces. We find evidence that provinces which form the leading group early experience an early decline in the fertility rate. Exploiting the provincial variation in the year of establishment, we estimate a difference-in-difference model, which explains about half the decline in the Chinese total fertility rate from 5.7 in 1969 to 2.7 in 1978. When comparing to the 1979 One-Child Policy, which previous research has widely adopted as an exogenous shock to the fertility rate, our empirical strategy captures a greater decline in the fertility rate and does not result in a contemporaneous increase in the sex ratio. We then use this natural experiment to re-evaluate the effect of fertility rate on children's educational attainment. We find no evidence of strong quality-quantity tradeoff. 主讲人简介：陈祎，暨南大学经济与社会研究院讲师，经济学博士，2015年毕业于加州大学洛杉矶分校。主要研究领域为劳动经济学，健康经济学，应用微观经济学。其研究成果见于Economic Development and Cultural Change,《经济学（季刊）》等国内外知名期刊。 欢迎大家参加！
国际经贸学院 2016年12月1日
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