Gao Shan-wen, China

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Chief Economist, Essence Securities Co. Ltd
Transition Economy Program (’00/’01)

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What is your area of specialization and how did you come to work in this area?

As a business economist, my responsibilities are to track and interpret timely macroeconomic data and to forecast economic trends and policy directions, which form an important background for the clients to judge the trend of capital markets and to construct investment strategies.
Essentially the job overlaps with my duty in my former job at the central bank, except that I have to change from the angle of a monetary policy maker to that of a capital market analyst.

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It seems your career has taken interesting turns since you graduated from GRIPS. Can you please explain the path your career has taken?

I started my career at the People’s Bank of China. As a central banker, my daily job was mostly routine and regular. When I moved to the private sector and started working as a business economist, the biggest difference with my previous job was that you are constantly exposed to the (whims and vagaries of) the market. This presents a huge challenge but is also what makes the work so interesting and appealing.

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What are some of the biggest challenges you face in your work and what has been the most rewarding aspect of your career thus far?

The greatest challenge is to correctly judge economic trends at the turning point when data is still mixed and very incomplete and market opinion very divided. The most rewarding aspect is when later data confirms the prior judgment.

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Has your experience at GRIPS/GSPS helped you in your career? What was the most important thing you learned while here?

Yes, surely enough it has helped. Apart from basic economic theory I studied at GRIPS, the most important thing I learned shall be the methodology to apply the theory to real economic life, and to test and revise it. The course in Japanese economic history was also very useful.

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When you resigned from Everbright Securities in March 2007 the media were talking about a “shock resignation”. You have obviously gained a reputation as one of China’s top business economists. Does this put any pressure on you, or do you thrive on the high expectations people may have of you?

As I gain more visibility, naturally expectations rise as well. I have to work harder to meet these expectations whilst sometimes people may be disappointed, since I make mistakes, sometimes huge mistakes.

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How do you see the year unfolding for China in these hard times?

The economy obviously is recovering due to forceful fiscal and monetary stimulus, though from a very low base. The risk is that as the policy effects abate earlier next year, the economy may still shrink again. However as the property market gradually gains vigor, I shall be able to take a more positive attitude regarding that prospect. The capital market certainly has hit the bottom and the current rebound will continue for some days to come, because of sufficient liquidity and improving economic prospect, though the price earning ratio is already worryingly high.

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If you could choose another profession to be in, what would it be?

My dream used to be being a physicist.

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What is your fondest memory of your time spent at GRIPS?

The school trip to Kyoto, the completion ceremony, the courses given by Prof. Rhodes, Prof. Tanaka and so on.

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What do you miss about Japan?

Sushi, Fuji-san, temples in Kyoto and the sakura…

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What is your favorite thing to do when you are not working?

Reading and golf.

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You must be a busy man. How do you maintain a balance between your work and the rest of your life?

When I joined the profession six years ago, the pressure was so forceful that I had no time to rest, except the three “golden weeks”. Later on as I was gradually accepted by the market, I found more time to stay with my family. These days I have quite a few associates so that I have more time to focus on thinking, which I can do even when I am taking a rest.

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What advice would you give to current GRIPS students?

Study hard, play hard and travel hard. Enjoy the food and the friendship in Japan besides the courses.